Change of Evidence

Last update: 23 October 2026

Change of Evidence measures compare the Bayesian evidence for an effect over the course of data collection to those of monte-carlo simulations. They can reveal unusual changes in evidence which can be the consequence of the rise and decline of volatile effects.

			Combined	Max BF		BF Energy	FFT Amp.sum
Study	Effect expected	N	CoE p	Value (n)	p	p	p	Direction	Lab/Online
Loving Kind	✔	171	0.127	4.16 (n=32)	0.113	0.154	0.12	greater	🏠
Prayer	✔	431	0.541	1.44 (n=17)	0.481	0.723	0.481	greater	🌍
Monks T1 Exp	✔	23	0.123	1.98 (n=22)	0.139	0.11	0.123	greater	🏠
Monks T1 Con	✖	29	0.924	1 (n=1)	1	0.807	0.992	greater	🏠
Monks T2 Exp	✔	23	0.16	1.74 (n=14)	0.169	0.139	0.177	greater	🏠
Monks T2 Con	✖	29	0.471	1.18 (n=7)	0.44	0.472	0.504	greater	🏠
Meditation T1	✖	40	0.982	1 (n=1)	1	0.949	1	greater	🌍
Meditation T2	✔	48	0.332	1.74 (n=4)	0.248	0.559	0.312	greater	🌍
Sound preference	✔	70	0.387	1.27 (n=53)	0.502	0.306	0.401	greater	🏠
All-will-be-good	✔	38	0.349	1.77 (n=5)	0.293	0.47	0.326	greater	🏠
One-armed Bandit	✔	40	0.034	4.15 (n=24)	0.053	0.023	0.037	greater	🏠
Coin Toss	✔	40	0.394	1.15 (n=17)	0.494	0.311	0.42	greater	🏠
Incongruence Exp	✔	236	0.021	10.72 (n=153)	0.034	0.014	0.023	greater	🌍
Incongruence Con	✖	271	0.229	2.1 (n=125)	0.289	0.171	0.265	greater	🌍
Smokers 1 Exp	✔	122	0.006	66.06 (n=122)	0.007	0.006	0.006	different	🏠
Smokers 1 Con	✖	132	0.998	1 (n=1)	1	0.993	1	different	🏠
Smokers 2 Exp	✔	175	0.065	10.19 (n=7)	0.055	0.115	0.052	less	🏠
Smokers 2 Con	✖	220	0.091	6.97 (n=10)	0.08	0.111	0.086	less	🏠
Smokers 3	✔	203	0.266	1.89 (n=3)	0.248	0.259	0.294	less	🏠
Psyscanner Style 1 Exp	✔	1400	0.024	12.92 (n=825)	0.041	0.017	0.024	greater	🌍
Psyscanner Style 1 Con	✖	1003	0.611	1.12 (n=2)	0.735	0.449	0.755	greater	🌍
Psyscanner Style 2 Exp	✔	1308	0.205	3.2 (n=355)	0.234	0.185	0.202	greater	🌍
Psyscanner Style 2 Con	✖	1095	0.058	7.84 (n=936)	0.087	0.042	0.06	greater	🌍
Psyscanner Style 3 Exp	✔	1462	0.275	2.39 (n=187)	0.341	0.241	0.261	greater	🌍
Psyscanner Style 3 Con	✖	941	0.287	3.72 (n=17)	0.181	0.637	0.298	greater	🌍
Relaxation	✔	12571	0.104	7.44 (n=380)	0.11	0.11	0.093	greater	🌍
Priming 1 Exp	✔	4092	0.021	28.78 (n=1680)	0.023	0.019	0.02	greater	🌍
Priming 1 Con	✖	4092	0.698	1.38 (n=58)	0.648	0.687	0.768	greater	🌍
Priming 2 Exp	✔	2063	0.844	1.15 (n=21)	0.767	0.903	0.876	greater	🌍
Priming 2 Con	✖	2063	0.922	1 (n=1)	1	0.801	0.995	greater	🌍
Priming 3 Exp	✔	6099	0.85	1.01 (n=28)	0.868	0.827	0.855	greater	🌍
Priming 3 Con	✖	6099	0.971	1 (n=1)	1	0.949	0.964	greater	🌍
Priming 4 Exp	✔	4060	0.667	1.65 (n=11)	0.539	0.877	0.666	greater	🌍
Priming 4 Con	✖	4060	0.717	1.56 (n=5)	0.562	0.972	0.727	greater	🌍
Erotic Images 1	✔	241	0.388	1.39 (n=111)	0.492	0.288	0.449	greater	🌍
Erotic Images 2	✔	678	0.079	5.24 (n=363)	0.111	0.053	0.101	greater	🌍
Smokers Priming Exp	✔	38	0.25	1.76 (n=4)	0.233	0.259	0.259	greater	🏠
Smokers Priming Con	✖	38	0.223	1.88 (n=6)	0.209	0.223	0.238	greater	🏠
Sobjectivity 1	✖	898	0.669	1.41 (n=2)	0.526	0.83	0.724	greater	🌍
Sobjectivity 2	✖	986	0.959	1 (n=1)	1	0.922	0.959	greater	🌍
Sobjectivity 3	✖	1503	0.011	56.51 (n=56)	0.008	0.052	0.008	greater	🌍
Epsi Correlation Condition A	✖	2052	0.555	1.6 (n=78)	0.486	0.683	0.532	greater	🌍
Epsi Correlation Condition B	✖	2052	0.384	2.47 (n=8)	0.299	0.685	0.332	greater	🌍
Robots	✔	34	0.128	2.28 (n=13)	0.15	0.113	0.125	greater	🌍
Schrödingers Cat Hope	✔	285	0.995	1 (n=1)	1	0.986	1	greater	🌍
Schrödingers Cat Baseline	✔	285	0.241	1.87 (n=104)	0.327	0.172	0.279	greater	🌍
Desire	✔	201	0.346	1.45 (n=14)	0.44	0.282	0.352	greater	🌍
Stories	✔	766	0.186	2.18 (n=207)	0.305	0.129	0.195	greater	🌍
Willpower	✔	703	0.049	15.68 (n=58)	0.037	0.085	0.045	greater	🌍
Baseline 1 Lucky	✔	801	0.024	13.21 (n=627)	0.032	0.02	0.023	less	🌍
Baseline 1 Unlucky	✔	725	0.916	1 (n=1)	1	0.81	0.96	greater	🌍
Baseline 2	✔	2094	0.263	4.04 (n=6)	0.161	0.615	0.28	less	🌍
Note: CoE p is the harmonic mean of the three component p-values. All p-values are the share of 1,000 null simulations with an equal or more extreme value.