Change of Evidence

Last update: 14 July 2025

Change of Evidence measures compare the Bayesian evidence for an effect over the course of data collection to those of monte-carlo simulations. They can reveal unusual changes in evidence which can be the consequence of the rise and decline of volatile effects.

			Max BF		BF Energy		FFT Amplitude sum
Study	Effect expected	N	MaxBF	p	Energy	p	Asum	p	Direction	Lab/Online
Loving Kind	✔	171	4.16 (n=32)	0.11	17.33	0.16	3.22	0.12	greater	🏠
Prayer	✔	431	1.44 (n=17)	0.48	-269.85	0.72	1.42	0.48	greater	🌍
Monks T1 Exp	✔	23	1.98 (n=22)	0.14	6.44	0.11	1.81	0.12	greater	🏠
Monks T1 Con	✖	29	1 (n=1)	1	-9.66	0.79	0.94	0.9	greater	🏠
Monks T2 Exp	✔	23	1.74 (n=14)	0.17	4.11	0.14	1.54	0.18	greater	🏠
Monks T2 Con	✖	29	1.18 (n=7)	0.44	-5.08	0.47	1.10	0.5	greater	🏠
Meditation T1	✖	40	1 (n=1)	1	-17.86	0.94	0.86	1	greater	🌍
Meditation T2	✔	48	1.74 (n=4)	0.25	-13.48	0.57	1.34	0.32	greater	🌍
Sound preference	✔	70	1.27 (n=53)	0.5	-1.29	0.31	1.34	0.41	greater	🏠
All-will-be-good	✔	38	1.77 (n=5)	0.23	-9.02	0.54	1.43	0.27	greater	🏠
One-armed Bandit	✔	40	4.15 (n=24)	0.05	44.75	0.02	3.87	0.04	greater	🏠
Coin Toss	✔	40	1.15 (n=17)	0.49	-2.65	0.31	1.20	0.42	greater	🏠
Incongruence Exp	✔	236	10.72 (n=153)	0.03	564.28	0.01	9.89	0.02	greater	🌍
Incongruence Con	✖	271	2.1 (n=125)	0.29	-7.06	0.17	2.02	0.26	greater	🌍
Smokers 1 Exp	✔	122	66.06 (n=122)	0.01	497.53	0.01	44.31	0.01	different	🏠
Smokers 1 Con	✖	132	1 (n=1)	1	-99.07	0.99	0.80	1	different	🏠
Smokers 2 Exp	✔	175	10.19 (n=7)	0.06	-59.18	0.12	6.99	0.05	less	🏠
Smokers 2 Con	✖	220	6.97 (n=10)	0.08	-80.29	0.11	4.47	0.09	less	🏠
Smokers 3	✔	203	1.89 (n=3)	0.25	-130.01	0.26	1.31	0.3	less	🏠
Psyscanner Style 1 Exp	✔	1400	12.92 (n=825)	0.04	4219.99	0.02	17.41	0.02	greater	🌍
Psyscanner Style 1 Con	✖	1003	1.12 (n=2)	0.74	-483.53	0.45	1.25	0.76	greater	🌍
Psyscanner Style 2 Exp	✔	1308	3.2 (n=355)	0.23	-100.59	0.18	3.63	0.2	greater	🌍
Psyscanner Style 2 Con	✖	1095	7.84 (n=936)	0.09	1605.39	0.04	9.04	0.06	greater	🌍
Psyscanner Style 3 Exp	✔	1462	2.39 (n=187)	0.34	-335.85	0.24	2.96	0.26	greater	🌍
Psyscanner Style 3 Con	✖	941	3.72 (n=17)	0.18	-572.64	0.64	2.48	0.3	greater	🌍
Relaxation	✔	12571	7.44 (n=380)	0.11	-6613.80	0.11	7.52	0.09	greater	🌍
Priming 1 Exp	✔	4092	28.78 (n=1680)	0.02	13019.99	0.02	32.31	0.02	greater	🌍
Priming 1 Con	✖	4092	1.38 (n=58)	0.65	-3306.74	0.69	1.31	0.77	greater	🌍
Priming 2 Exp	✔	2063	1.15 (n=21)	0.77	-1698.47	0.9	1.17	0.87	greater	🌍
Priming 2 Con	✖	2063	1 (n=1)	1	-1611.96	0.8	0.96	0.99	greater	🌍
Priming 3 Exp	✔	6099	1.01 (n=28)	0.87	-5344.89	0.83	1.22	0.84	greater	🌍
Priming 3 Con	✖	6099	1 (n=1)	1	-5561.55	0.95	1.08	0.96	greater	🌍
Priming 4 Exp	✔	4060	1.65 (n=11)	0.54	-3516.54	0.88	1.50	0.66	greater	🌍
Priming 4 Con	✖	4060	1.56 (n=5)	0.56	-3668.20	0.97	1.37	0.73	greater	🌍
Erotic Images 1	✔	241	1.39 (n=111)	0.49	-54.62	0.29	1.43	0.45	greater	🌍
Erotic Images 2	✔	678	5.24 (n=363)	0.11	482.41	0.05	5.29	0.1	greater	🌍
Smokers Priming Exp	✔	38	1.76 (n=4)	0.2	-0.29	0.34	1.50	0.25	greater	🏠
Smokers Priming Con	✖	38	1.88 (n=6)	0.16	1.79	0.29	1.55	0.23	greater	🏠
Sobjectivity 1	✖	898	1.41 (n=2)	0.58	-663.23	0.89	1.14	0.85	greater	🌍
Sobjectivity 2	✖	986	1 (n=1)	1	-775.26	0.95	0.92	0.99	greater	🌍
Sobjectivity 3	✖	1503	56.51 (n=56)	0.01	975.79	0.07	47.26	0.01	greater	🌍
Epsi Correlation Condition A	✖	2052	1.6 (n=78)	0.53	-1574.74	0.76	1.49	0.63	greater	🌍
Epsi Correlation Condition B	✖	2052	2.47 (n=8)	0.32	-1578.13	0.77	2.13	0.4	greater	🌍
Robots	✔	34	2.28 (n=13)	0.15	10.88	0.11	2.12	0.12	greater	🌍
Schrödingers Cat Exp	✔	285	1 (n=1)	1	-212.21	0.99	0.83	1	greater	🌍
Schrödingers Cat Con	✔	285	1.87 (n=104)	0.33	-15.67	0.17	1.97	0.28	greater	🌍
Desire	✔	201	1.45 (n=14)	0.44	-41.59	0.28	1.58	0.35	greater	🌍
Stories	✔	766	2.18 (n=207)	0.3	-39.96	0.13	2.76	0.2	greater	🌍
Willpower	✔	703	15.68 (n=58)	0.02	193.47	0.13	10.21	0.04	greater	🌍
Baseline 1 Lucky	✔	801	13.21 (n=627)	0.03	1588.95	0.02	14.59	0.02	less	🌍
Baseline 1 Unlucky	✔	725	1 (n=1)	1	-518.38	0.81	0.92	0.96	greater	🌍
Baseline 2	✔	2094	4.04 (n=6)	0.16	-1539.09	0.62	2.37	0.28	less	🌍